A number of videos, charts, etc., have been making their way around, and some of these contain various statistics. There are some that make the virus look extremely dangerous, while others make it look like it is no big deal. So here are some thoughts on things.
Mortality rate:
The statistics on this do not agree, but on the lower end the statistics say that the corona virus has a mortality rate of 1 to 2.2 percent. However, in the first 150 confirmed cases in the USA, eleven people died. That is a mortality rate of 7%. That is still fairly low; but think of it this way -- if the mortality rate stays at that percentage, seven out of 100 people in the USA who contract the corona virus will die.
Contagious factor:
Some sources say that the corona virus is less contagious than the measles. However, in an example given, one man exposed nine people to the virus. ALL nine of those people ended up getting the virus. That sounds pretty contagious.
Like a common cold:
Another claim is that for 90+ percent of people who get the virus, it is no worse than the common cold. However people have been getting fevers – up to 103 degrees or higher. Some have been hospitalized. Others have battled dehydration and needed special attention for that. Now, I’m not a doctor or medical professional; but I’ve had my share of common colds in my life. Family members and friends have as well. It is not a normal thing for people with common colds to have high fevers, need hospitalization, or require attention for dehydration.
How to distinguish from cold or flu:
I’m not sure if this is the case across the board, but I understand that there will likely be a fever and dry cough. What is missing is sneezing, nasal congestion, and body aches. The virus attacks the lungs but doesn’t really act like a cold or flu.
Statistics reflect what is occurring AFTER proper precautions have been put in place:
It is important to remember that these statistics reflect what is occurring after proper precautions have been taken. Various countries have closed schools, forbidden gatherings of large numbers of people, recommended that certain people stay home if possible, and even put curfews in place. In one country, they even released some prisoners to prevent spreading of the virus in prisons. People who got the virus were quarantined, and health workers wore special protective gear to try to keep from getting it. So, that is important to keep in mind.
How we know it is not “no big deal”
1. By the way countries have responded to this. Large precautions have been taken in the countries where the virus has been a serious problem.
2. By the way travel has been restricted and people are being quarantined who have it.
3. By the reactions of those in high places. For example, on one cruise ship, people were prevented from disembarking. Test kits were flown out to the cruise ship on a military helicopter and delivered by military personnel. This virus is being taken very seriously.
Why the big precautions:
I’m not certain, but a few things come to mind. Corona virus is not really a new virus. It has been around since the 1960s. The current strain that is going around is a mutation from the original, and no one is sure what it will do or how it will mutate in the future.
Epidemics tend to come in waves. The first wave will come. It may or may not be widespread. It lasts several weeks to a couple of months. After things settle down for a while, there is typically a second wave. Sometimes the second wave is bigger than the first. Sometimes it is not. In this case, it is not clear what could happen later or if the virus will mutate again. So, extra precautions are being taken.
The Over-reactions:
All those things being considered, there has been much over-reaction to the virus here in the USA. Many people have gone to the point of panic. Hand sanitizer is not to be found. Soap and toilet paper are in short supply. Exam gloves are scarce and available at double the price. It may be important to stock up for a few weeks, but it almost seems people have stocked for a year or two. Remember to save enough for everyone. We are all in this together. Also, most cases turn out OK if medical attention is sought and given right away. There is a 93% chance that you will not die even if you do get it. So, take what precautions you can or feel you must, but consider others too. That is the best way.